***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 25.5 -1.4 29.1 34.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 23.9 23.9 25.2 -1.8 24.1 31.4 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 23.9 25.0 25.6 -1.4 29.5 35.3 25.3 26.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 17.8 18.3 24.2 -1.2 30.6 35.9 19.0 19.9 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 24.2 25.9 24.1 -1.2 33.7 36.5 25.7 27.1 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 23.8 25.4 22.4 -0.5 44.8 45.0 24.5 25.5 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 24.5 23.8 25.1 -1.8 23.7 31.1 24.8 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 22.6 -0.9 39.6 40.0 13.5 15.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 23.6 25.4 24.4 -1.3 33.1 36.3 25.4 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 23.9 25.5 23.1 -1.1 36.2 37.9 25.3 26.1 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.0 25.8 23.8 -1.0 37.0 39.1 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.1 23.7 -0.8 39.5 41.4 24.9 25.8 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.5 23.3 -0.7 40.8 42.7 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 23.7 23.9 23.9 -1.4 30.1 35.4 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 25.0 25.9 25.0 -1.0 30.5 38.1 26.1 27.9 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 24.8 26.9 23.7 -0.8 37.9 40.6 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.7 24.8 -1.9 24.2 30.1 24.8 26.4 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 26.3 24.7 22.3 -1.1 36.2 38.1 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 23.5 23.6 25.4 -1.7 25.7 32.7 24.6 26.5 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.2 20.4 -0.9 40.0 40.3 19.8 21.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 23.5 25.4 25.2 -1.3 31.3 36.2 25.4 26.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 23.6 23.6 24.9 -1.7 25.9 31.8 25.0 26.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 23.6 24.6 25.3 -1.5 27.9 34.3 25.0 27.0 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 23.5 24.6 23.9 -1.3 31.8 36.8 24.7 26.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 23.4 25.1 24.1 -1.4 27.2 34.4 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 26.8 25.8 23.4 -0.5 41.6 44.0 25.2 26.3 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 23.4 24.7 24.6 -1.5 28.2 34.0 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 24.9 26.2 24.7 -1.0 32.3 38.3 26.3 27.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 18.9 19.9 21.4 -1.0 37.2 39.1 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 23.9 24.7 25.4 -1.7 25.8 32.3 25.1 26.9 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------