***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.6 -1.9 24.4 27.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 23.9 23.9 24.4 -2.1 23.7 25.6 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 23.7 23.8 24.7 -2.0 24.5 27.9 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 17.4 17.2 22.9 -2.1 20.5 25.7 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 24.5 24.5 22.8 -2.2 22.7 26.4 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 22.8 22.9 20.7 -1.7 25.0 29.7 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 23.5 23.5 24.4 -2.1 22.3 25.5 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 12.2 12.1 21.0 -2.1 22.5 27.2 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 23.7 24.0 23.1 -2.1 22.8 27.0 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 23.8 23.5 21.7 -2.2 23.0 27.0 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 24.2 24.3 22.3 -2.0 23.5 27.7 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 23.3 23.1 22.0 -2.0 23.9 28.5 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 24.0 24.6 21.5 -1.9 25.6 28.9 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 23.8 23.7 22.8 -2.2 22.0 27.1 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 25.5 25.0 23.6 -2.0 20.8 26.6 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 25.0 25.2 22.0 -2.0 22.9 28.1 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 23.1 23.2 24.1 -2.2 21.6 25.0 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 23.0 22.8 21.0 -2.2 20.8 27.1 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 23.4 23.7 24.5 -2.1 24.4 26.4 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 18.1 17.9 18.8 -2.2 19.6 26.1 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 24.0 24.2 24.0 -2.0 23.6 27.4 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 23.6 23.6 24.2 -2.1 21.7 26.0 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 23.6 24.2 24.3 -2.1 24.1 27.0 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 23.5 23.1 22.8 -2.1 21.6 27.8 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 24.2 24.0 23.0 -2.1 23.0 26.1 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 23.4 23.7 21.4 -1.9 24.0 28.6 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 23.6 23.7 23.7 -2.0 24.0 26.6 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 25.2 24.6 23.2 -2.0 20.7 26.7 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 18.0 17.3 20.0 -2.1 19.7 27.1 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 23.4 23.9 24.6 -2.1 24.3 26.3 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------