***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 -2.9 16.9 17.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 22.6 22.7 21.7 -3.0 16.8 16.6 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 22.1 22.1 21.8 -3.0 16.5 17.4 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 15.3 15.2 19.6 -2.9 15.6 16.9 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 22.6 22.4 20.1 -3.2 15.2 16.3 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 22.3 22.3 18.0 -2.7 16.4 17.0 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 22.5 22.5 21.6 -3.0 17.1 16.5 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 11.4 11.2 18.1 -3.0 15.3 17.3 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 22.0 21.9 20.9 -3.1 14.1 16.9 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 22.1 21.9 19.1 -3.1 14.1 17.0 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 23.2 23.0 19.8 -3.0 15.8 17.1 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 22.6 22.4 19.1 -2.9 16.3 17.9 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 23.6 23.4 19.3 -2.8 16.5 17.8 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 22.3 22.3 20.3 -3.2 16.3 16.6 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 23.5 23.3 21.8 -2.4 17.8 19.0 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 23.7 23.7 19.7 -2.9 16.4 17.2 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 22.1 22.1 21.5 -3.0 17.0 16.7 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 21.7 21.6 18.1 -3.2 14.7 16.6 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 22.1 22.2 21.7 -3.0 16.9 16.9 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 17.5 17.5 16.1 -3.0 16.3 17.0 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 22.1 22.1 21.6 -3.1 15.4 17.0 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 22.4 22.3 21.5 -2.9 16.3 17.4 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 22.2 22.1 21.6 -3.0 17.0 17.2 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 21.9 21.8 20.1 -3.2 15.7 16.8 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 22.8 22.8 20.4 -3.1 15.7 16.2 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 23.4 23.1 18.6 -2.7 16.4 18.2 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 22.3 22.3 21.1 -3.0 16.2 16.6 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 23.3 23.1 20.6 -2.7 17.1 18.1 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 17.4 17.4 17.3 -3.2 15.0 16.5 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 22.2 22.2 21.9 -3.0 16.8 16.9 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------