***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.1 -1.1 17.5 21.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 13.2 12.9 15.0 -1.3 13.7 18.7 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 15.0 14.9 15.1 -1.1 16.5 22.0 15.7 16.0 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 10.1 9.6 13.3 -1.1 13.9 19.1 10.6 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 11.9 11.6 13.2 -1.1 15.1 19.7 12.4 13.0 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 10.9 10.5 11.4 -0.9 15.7 24.0 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 13.6 13.3 15.0 -1.3 13.2 18.2 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 5.7 5.1 11.0 -1.2 13.7 18.7 6.4 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 13.1 12.9 13.5 -1.1 16.6 19.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 12.9 12.6 11.9 -1.1 15.8 19.4 13.7 13.8 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 12.9 12.6 12.7 -1.0 16.6 21.8 13.4 13.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 10.8 10.4 11.9 -1.1 14.3 19.5 11.2 11.9 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 12.2 11.9 11.8 -0.9 18.0 23.4 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 13.6 13.4 13.4 -1.3 15.2 18.2 14.2 14.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 13.9 13.6 14.3 -1.0 17.8 22.5 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 13.0 12.6 12.5 -0.9 16.8 23.0 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.7 -1.3 14.1 18.5 14.5 14.9 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 11.5 11.2 11.1 -1.2 14.7 18.7 12.2 12.7 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 13.6 13.4 15.0 -1.2 15.0 19.7 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 7.5 7.1 9.1 -1.2 13.1 18.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 13.1 12.9 14.5 -1.1 17.3 20.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 13.0 12.7 14.7 -1.3 14.2 18.2 13.6 13.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.8 -1.2 16.3 20.3 13.2 13.7 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 13.1 12.8 13.2 -1.1 16.9 20.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 13.1 12.7 13.8 -1.1 14.3 20.3 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 11.7 11.5 11.6 -1.1 15.5 19.1 12.4 12.8 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 13.2 13.0 14.4 -1.1 14.9 21.1 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 11.9 11.5 13.7 -1.0 15.1 20.9 12.4 13.1 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 10.0 9.7 10.3 -1.2 14.7 19.1 10.5 10.8 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 13.6 13.4 15.2 -1.3 14.0 19.5 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------