***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.1 -0.9 36.3 36.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 13.2 13.8 16.0 -1.2 31.5 34.2 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 15.3 15.7 16.0 -0.9 36.9 36.9 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.5 14.3 -1.0 32.9 35.3 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.1 -1.0 30.8 35.2 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.8 12.5 -0.6 35.9 39.3 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 13.6 13.9 16.0 -1.2 30.1 33.6 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.8 12.3 -0.8 34.7 37.5 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 14.7 13.8 14.4 -0.9 33.4 35.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.8 12.9 -0.8 34.7 37.1 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.4 13.8 -0.8 33.9 38.2 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.2 13.2 -0.8 34.5 37.3 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.4 12.8 -0.7 34.9 37.3 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.5 14.3 -1.0 29.5 33.2 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.0 15.3 -0.9 34.6 37.3 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 13.5 13.8 13.5 -0.8 33.7 37.2 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.6 15.7 -1.2 31.7 34.7 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.4 12.5 12.2 -0.8 34.8 36.7 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 13.6 13.8 16.0 -1.1 32.2 34.8 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 8.4 10.4 -0.8 35.1 37.1 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 13.7 13.3 15.4 -0.9 34.0 35.8 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.6 -1.1 30.2 34.4 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 13.1 13.4 15.8 -1.0 32.8 34.4 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.1 14.2 -0.9 34.3 36.2 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.4 14.6 -1.0 32.4 35.8 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 12.3 12.7 12.8 -0.8 32.7 34.6 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.3 -1.0 33.5 36.0 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.5 12.7 14.8 -0.9 32.9 36.2 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.8 11.4 -0.9 33.3 36.3 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 13.7 13.9 16.1 -1.1 32.5 34.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------