***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.2 -0.5 40.0 42.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.0 -0.8 35.2 38.3 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.9 16.1 -0.6 39.3 41.2 15.0 16.3 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.7 14.4 -0.6 38.2 41.1 10.3 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.3 14.2 -0.6 39.6 41.1 12.0 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.9 12.6 -0.3 45.8 45.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.8 16.0 -0.9 35.3 38.2 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 5.9 12.2 -0.7 38.5 40.3 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.8 14.5 -0.7 38.0 40.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.5 12.9 -0.6 38.1 40.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.8 13.8 -0.5 41.4 43.1 13.0 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.2 13.1 -0.6 40.5 41.7 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.3 13.0 12.9 -0.4 43.6 44.2 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.8 14.3 -0.9 32.7 37.3 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 14.1 14.2 15.2 -0.6 35.7 41.1 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 13.3 13.9 13.5 -0.4 43.0 43.9 13.5 14.4 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.5 14.2 15.7 -0.9 36.0 38.0 14.0 14.3 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.6 12.1 -0.7 35.6 39.5 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 13.4 13.8 16.0 -0.8 36.7 39.1 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.7 10.3 -0.7 37.1 39.2 7.7 8.2 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.7 15.5 -0.6 39.4 41.1 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.2 15.7 -0.9 37.2 37.9 13.0 13.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 12.3 13.0 15.8 -0.7 36.5 39.4 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.3 14.1 -0.7 37.3 39.5 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.8 -0.5 40.0 42.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.6 12.9 -0.4 43.8 43.5 12.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.0 15.5 -0.5 39.6 42.7 12.6 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 12.2 12.8 14.8 -0.6 38.1 41.4 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.7 9.9 11.4 -0.7 34.2 39.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 13.4 13.8 16.2 -0.8 36.0 39.2 13.7 14.6 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------