***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.5 -0.8 30.8 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.2 15.4 -1.0 30.9 32.8 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.8 15.4 -0.8 29.9 35.9 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 9.5 9.0 13.4 -1.1 23.9 30.0 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 11.8 12.2 13.3 -1.0 25.6 30.8 12.3 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 11.1 11.2 11.5 -0.9 27.1 31.8 11.3 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.6 13.5 15.4 -1.1 30.7 32.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 5.3 5.0 11.3 -1.1 24.8 28.6 5.7 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 13.1 13.3 13.6 -1.0 27.1 31.7 13.4 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 12.8 12.7 12.1 -1.0 26.2 30.6 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 12.9 12.9 12.9 -0.9 25.8 32.0 13.0 13.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 10.6 10.8 12.2 -1.0 25.0 30.2 10.9 11.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.5 11.8 -0.8 24.7 32.5 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 13.5 13.2 13.7 -1.0 25.3 31.4 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 14.2 14.0 14.1 -1.0 26.6 31.0 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 13.0 12.8 12.5 -0.9 25.8 32.3 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.8 15.2 -1.0 33.2 33.4 13.7 14.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 11.3 11.9 11.3 -1.1 23.7 29.8 12.1 12.4 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.7 15.4 -1.0 31.8 33.9 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 7.2 7.2 9.3 -1.3 20.3 25.9 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.7 -0.9 28.8 33.8 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.2 15.1 -1.0 31.7 33.3 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.1 15.2 -0.9 30.4 34.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.5 -0.9 26.4 33.0 13.6 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 12.8 13.1 14.0 -0.9 27.4 33.2 13.2 13.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 11.7 11.4 11.7 -1.1 24.0 28.0 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.2 14.7 -0.8 31.2 35.1 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.8 -1.0 25.7 30.5 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 8.9 8.7 10.6 -1.2 21.4 27.9 9.4 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 13.8 13.7 15.5 -1.0 31.1 33.6 13.7 14.4 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------