***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 73.8 71.0 61.2 113.8 65.7 57.0 58.0 67.4 71.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 54.9 82.6 56.9 100.6 56.2 48.9 56.2 68.8 86.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 100.4 111.4 65.1 118.3 67.8 58.9 71.5 92.2 110.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 109.6 131.3 81.6 134.4 79.3 64.5 59.2 73.1 91.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 95.4 108.4 77.7 128.0 74.9 61.4 47.9 64.8 70.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 73.9 82.0 99.5 130.4 77.0 65.6 42.7 55.6 70.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 49.0 69.4 55.3 96.5 55.8 46.7 51.4 68.6 72.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 123.6 141.4 91.7 135.0 79.2 68.4 71.7 86.3 103.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 91.2 103.4 82.0 132.3 78.5 64.3 54.5 68.8 85.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 105.0 118.8 96.1 131.0 77.7 65.8 56.9 76.4 100.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 84.7 92.6 71.9 131.0 77.0 64.4 46.1 62.4 80.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 69.9 83.8 73.5 141.6 81.4 69.8 41.2 57.5 70.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 76.0 79.2 76.1 125.7 72.0 62.8 39.7 56.0 73.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 107.8 124.2 84.1 118.1 69.7 58.9 78.1 99.9 112.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 70.2 77.5 72.5 135.0 78.3 64.3 30.2 55.6 69.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 68.9 76.9 74.2 130.0 77.4 63.9 30.0 49.9 56.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 45.8 62.2 51.5 88.8 44.5 42.5 50.9 72.2 87.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 100.2 111.0 107.8 129.4 77.9 65.8 61.5 81.4 88.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 62.0 87.4 59.3 106.1 60.1 52.1 69.8 82.3 97.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 83.0 87.5 106.5 126.5 72.9 65.4 53.3 61.4 84.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 87.9 97.5 70.1 130.7 75.4 63.0 55.8 72.3 86.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 53.7 72.2 52.8 90.8 45.6 43.9 63.1 74.2 81.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 77.3 88.8 64.7 114.8 65.0 56.3 61.2 70.6 89.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 114.3 127.6 89.8 125.4 75.5 63.1 78.2 86.1 122.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 80.5 86.8 78.6 121.1 69.9 59.8 55.8 74.4 80.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 73.8 79.9 68.9 136.9 76.6 68.0 37.5 52.8 71.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 84.7 104.9 72.2 113.8 66.7 57.4 55.1 76.0 104.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 65.4 72.0 77.1 133.5 79.6 63.6 40.4 53.9 63.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 125.2 137.9 105.8 126.0 74.1 63.9 83.7 102.5 114.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 61.4 86.3 58.9 105.0 60.9 52.2 70.3 78.8 88.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------