***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.5 8.1 77.7 60.9 42.0 5.2 7.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 6.2 14.7 8.1 74.5 55.2 37.1 8.3 13.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 7.2 15.1 9.3 88.3 59.5 42.4 9.4 12.8 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.8 12.0 11.0 105.7 65.1 48.6 4.8 9.5 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.0 14.2 11.3 102.3 65.8 46.0 2.8 4.8 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.7 10.4 16.3 130.4 73.6 50.0 0.9 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.8 9.9 8.0 72.9 57.2 36.9 6.2 8.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.1 22.2 13.5 102.4 64.1 47.4 3.8 14.9 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.9 10.5 12.1 103.0 66.1 44.8 2.7 5.0 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.9 13.2 14.5 100.3 61.5 44.8 4.2 9.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.4 8.6 10.1 103.9 64.0 46.4 2.7 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 16.7 10.3 111.6 70.0 49.5 0.5 6.4 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.5 11.3 12.0 118.6 74.6 50.0 1.3 6.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 19.4 22.0 14.2 98.8 62.0 47.0 10.3 15.0 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.9 8.4 9.9 123.9 69.9 50.0 1.0 2.3 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.3 8.5 11.2 125.0 74.1 49.8 0.8 3.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 5.7 10.2 7.5 62.1 50.5 37.2 5.2 10.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.8 15.3 18.0 106.3 62.3 45.5 7.7 11.9 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 7.1 13.3 8.4 79.8 58.0 39.8 8.6 12.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 16.0 17.8 108.6 62.2 48.6 8.3 10.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.3 13.3 10.3 105.2 66.1 46.1 4.8 9.1 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.6 10.6 7.8 63.2 54.3 39.0 5.7 8.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 8.5 17.0 9.5 91.3 59.7 44.4 9.2 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.4 21.3 14.6 101.1 59.9 45.5 11.7 19.0 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.2 10.6 85.4 60.9 43.6 5.7 11.4 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.4 16.9 11.0 150.7 78.8 55.2 1.2 6.0 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.1 9.4 75.1 57.2 42.0 4.9 8.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.7 9.4 11.0 126.9 71.8 50.0 1.6 3.3 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.1 20.1 18.8 111.9 64.0 47.7 13.7 16.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 9.4 16.4 8.3 77.6 56.7 38.5 10.3 14.4 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------