***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.4 31.3 12.1 114.5 67.8 50.3 7.4 11.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 19.3 20.6 13.8 115.3 68.9 53.1 9.2 11.1 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.0 31.4 13.1 121.8 72.7 52.6 7.3 10.7 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 32.4 12.3 104.1 71.8 49.6 3.4 11.6 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.3 27.2 12.3 99.9 72.2 52.0 4.0 15.6 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.8 27.6 18.4 107.5 68.7 50.5 4.7 13.6 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.2 19.8 13.6 112.4 72.6 53.3 8.4 10.9 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 31.3 15.8 110.8 67.6 54.3 7.1 16.1 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 9.4 23.3 13.6 109.7 73.4 54.4 8.9 15.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.1 33.7 16.7 109.1 68.7 54.5 10.7 19.3 32.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.7 25.0 10.5 91.1 67.2 51.1 6.3 14.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.2 20.7 11.3 107.9 68.1 52.4 2.7 9.0 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.1 23.1 13.4 107.5 66.8 50.1 5.6 15.2 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.8 37.1 18.1 130.2 73.1 56.7 14.0 20.9 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.4 19.4 10.3 109.2 71.1 50.7 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.4 20.8 11.8 98.6 69.0 49.8 3.4 11.0 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.4 24.6 14.2 123.1 72.2 54.1 5.1 12.4 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 29.4 21.1 120.8 68.3 55.8 5.9 12.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.6 24.5 13.7 119.7 70.7 54.0 5.9 11.9 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 20.2 20.9 110.9 67.5 54.2 7.9 15.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 6.8 28.8 12.1 124.1 76.0 53.9 6.2 11.7 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.8 18.6 13.9 124.7 71.4 55.4 7.0 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 18.8 32.5 14.0 126.9 74.2 55.7 6.7 11.8 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.9 36.5 18.1 129.4 70.4 56.2 12.9 21.7 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.3 24.1 15.4 119.8 70.3 51.0 5.9 10.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.0 23.5 10.7 107.1 67.5 51.4 2.0 14.4 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.3 29.4 15.0 116.2 67.7 50.7 10.8 17.0 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.1 20.1 11.3 99.0 70.3 49.1 1.7 8.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 37.5 21.0 117.0 66.3 55.0 10.8 15.5 37.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.5 19.6 13.3 111.1 67.2 52.1 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------