***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 19.0 24.6 14.7 116.3 65.8 56.6 3.4 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.1 27.7 14.3 102.4 63.7 53.4 11.6 20.1 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.3 26.0 14.6 110.5 61.7 54.6 5.6 11.8 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.3 31.9 19.4 136.0 73.8 59.2 8.2 14.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.0 26.3 18.2 125.7 71.2 56.9 6.4 13.3 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 20.1 21.2 26.1 122.5 65.4 61.9 11.6 19.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.9 18.5 14.0 97.8 64.0 51.9 7.3 10.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 29.1 30.5 21.9 134.3 71.6 64.3 10.4 15.4 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.3 28.7 19.4 128.9 70.7 59.9 5.7 11.3 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 30.5 33.4 23.1 132.4 72.5 63.4 7.3 15.3 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 24.2 25.2 15.9 131.0 73.8 61.5 10.5 16.5 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.5 13.7 15.7 136.2 72.8 64.5 5.5 7.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 22.1 15.5 17.8 117.6 64.5 58.1 5.7 10.1 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 17.9 23.4 21.0 121.0 68.8 59.1 10.8 13.9 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.9 21.5 16.8 126.0 71.6 59.8 1.1 6.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 17.8 15.3 16.9 121.9 68.0 59.9 4.4 8.6 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.0 21.6 12.3 88.6 60.3 49.8 6.5 11.4 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 25.0 27.5 27.5 136.9 74.3 64.6 4.0 13.3 25.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 12.1 23.4 14.6 105.4 64.1 54.4 13.5 19.7 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 26.3 28.5 29.0 133.3 73.6 64.0 6.7 14.5 27.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.1 25.4 15.6 120.1 65.6 55.7 7.8 11.8 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.9 13.0 95.9 59.6 51.2 10.1 16.0 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.8 15.8 112.0 65.4 56.0 8.0 14.9 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.4 27.0 21.8 127.2 69.1 61.0 7.4 17.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.6 20.4 122.3 64.9 57.6 7.6 11.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.9 20.5 14.2 116.9 66.0 56.6 1.7 8.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.3 24.8 19.2 118.5 68.1 58.7 5.0 11.1 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.0 29.0 17.1 122.9 70.9 56.7 2.7 13.7 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 35.7 41.3 27.2 132.3 72.7 63.1 9.2 20.7 32.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.6 25.4 14.7 107.3 64.9 54.4 10.9 19.8 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------