***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.6 32.1 26.3 130.4 71.8 58.9 8.5 17.3 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 9.1 25.7 20.7 104.7 63.1 50.2 13.6 21.0 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.5 48.0 28.1 136.8 74.6 60.5 10.2 19.9 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 32.6 41.4 38.9 160.6 80.9 66.5 9.0 19.6 27.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 25.5 31.7 35.8 157.1 81.2 64.5 11.8 18.3 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 18.7 23.2 38.7 152.9 82.1 66.7 11.5 14.3 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 9.1 21.5 19.7 98.9 60.2 48.2 8.9 18.3 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 36.2 44.2 40.5 166.6 83.3 69.7 21.5 25.5 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 27.5 36.9 36.9 162.2 83.8 67.1 10.8 21.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 26.4 36.9 41.8 159.3 80.6 67.3 8.9 13.1 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 24.0 32.5 35.3 164.7 82.1 68.4 9.6 14.2 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 21.4 36.3 36.2 174.7 86.1 71.2 6.3 9.6 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 19.3 23.6 32.8 143.7 78.0 63.6 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 35.3 37.1 30.8 120.2 70.3 56.5 15.4 31.7 36.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.4 23.3 35.6 155.1 80.4 65.6 5.5 11.1 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 20.6 28.1 34.3 153.7 80.9 66.4 6.4 10.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 8.4 19.4 17.4 85.5 52.3 43.9 10.4 18.1 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 31.3 36.6 41.2 143.1 77.9 63.9 13.9 20.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 8.5 29.3 22.5 112.7 66.7 52.9 10.5 19.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 27.8 32.3 38.7 142.5 76.3 64.9 9.3 16.3 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 25.2 30.6 32.2 152.5 78.4 64.8 9.4 14.9 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 8.9 22.6 18.1 85.8 52.0 43.8 16.6 22.0 31.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.4 27.7 25.4 122.1 71.7 55.9 13.1 16.8 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 35.7 40.5 35.4 135.6 77.2 60.7 14.3 25.6 31.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 27.5 28.6 32.2 140.0 74.5 61.3 12.6 20.3 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.2 26.4 33.0 157.9 82.5 68.4 4.7 10.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.8 29.3 28.6 131.0 70.8 59.5 8.6 18.1 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.6 21.8 37.9 158.7 81.4 66.5 5.8 10.1 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 34.6 40.3 38.7 136.2 76.4 62.1 12.8 21.4 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 10.1 25.2 22.7 114.4 65.1 53.5 11.9 17.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------