***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 25.6 26.2 26.6 0.1 52.0 53.3 25.5 26.1 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.1 26.8 0.3 61.1 56.8 25.7 26.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 25.3 25.9 26.5 -0.1 49.7 49.6 25.6 25.9 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 18.6 18.8 24.5 -0.4 41.2 41.6 18.4 19.3 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.9 26.4 24.6 -0.4 45.3 42.8 25.8 26.6 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 24.5 24.7 22.3 -0.5 36.0 40.0 24.7 25.4 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.2 26.9 0.5 64.7 59.9 25.4 25.7 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.6 22.7 -0.5 39.8 40.2 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 25.1 25.7 25.0 -0.3 45.6 44.0 25.5 25.8 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 25.1 25.4 23.5 -0.4 43.1 42.3 25.0 25.9 26.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 25.4 26.1 24.0 -0.5 43.0 41.7 25.6 26.2 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 24.7 24.6 23.6 -0.6 35.1 38.6 24.5 25.7 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.7 25.9 23.2 -0.7 32.0 38.1 25.9 26.7 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 25.0 25.7 24.9 -0.1 48.6 49.8 25.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 26.5 26.4 25.1 -0.6 34.7 37.9 26.4 27.0 27.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 26.2 26.6 23.8 -0.6 37.5 40.2 26.5 27.1 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.0 26.7 0.5 64.6 59.9 25.1 25.2 26.0 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 24.6 25.0 22.8 -0.3 43.6 45.0 24.7 25.3 26.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.5 26.7 0.2 56.5 54.0 25.0 25.4 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.0 20.8 -0.4 43.9 43.9 20.2 21.1 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 25.2 25.8 25.9 -0.3 46.4 45.3 25.4 26.0 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.2 26.5 0.3 60.0 57.0 25.4 25.7 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.8 26.3 0.0 51.2 50.9 25.4 25.8 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 24.6 25.2 24.6 -0.2 44.5 46.9 25.0 25.4 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 25.5 26.0 25.0 -0.1 48.6 48.7 25.6 26.1 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 25.2 25.5 22.9 -0.8 28.6 36.0 25.5 26.2 26.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 25.2 26.0 25.8 0.1 54.5 53.8 25.4 25.9 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 26.4 26.6 24.7 -0.6 36.0 38.3 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 19.8 20.6 21.9 -0.3 44.6 46.0 20.0 20.7 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 25.2 26.0 26.8 0.2 59.7 55.5 25.4 25.8 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------