***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.4 28.1 0.6 60.3 58.2 26.1 27.3 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 27.3 28.1 28.2 0.7 59.5 57.2 26.0 26.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.9 28.1 28.1 0.5 58.1 56.3 25.5 27.2 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.6 19.8 26.2 0.0 50.2 51.3 18.5 19.8 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.3 26.3 0.2 54.6 53.8 26.3 27.6 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.7 24.2 0.1 52.7 53.1 25.4 26.6 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.5 28.2 28.2 0.9 64.2 59.1 25.7 27.0 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.6 24.7 0.2 53.4 54.2 13.9 16.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.9 26.5 0.2 55.7 54.4 25.1 27.0 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.8 25.3 0.3 54.9 54.8 24.9 26.7 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.8 25.8 0.2 51.2 54.3 25.4 26.7 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.7 25.6 0.1 50.0 52.6 24.8 25.7 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.1 25.1 0.0 50.1 52.0 26.0 27.1 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 25.2 27.6 26.3 0.5 55.9 56.1 25.6 26.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.4 26.5 -0.4 43.3 47.1 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.7 25.6 0.1 50.3 53.0 26.5 27.7 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.0 27.2 27.9 0.8 59.9 57.9 25.4 26.4 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 26.9 27.1 24.6 0.4 58.7 56.2 24.4 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.0 28.1 0.6 57.0 56.0 25.6 26.6 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.0 22.7 0.5 60.2 57.0 20.3 22.4 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.8 27.4 0.3 55.9 54.8 25.7 27.3 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.6 27.7 0.6 56.8 56.3 26.0 26.9 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.0 27.7 0.5 55.1 55.2 25.4 26.8 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.3 27.4 26.2 0.5 58.2 55.9 25.2 26.5 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.1 26.4 0.4 56.8 55.3 25.7 27.1 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.3 25.0 -0.1 49.6 50.6 26.0 27.3 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.8 27.2 0.6 60.8 58.3 25.4 27.2 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.6 26.4 -0.2 45.4 49.3 26.9 28.8 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.9 23.1 23.7 0.5 59.7 57.2 19.6 22.3 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.7 28.3 0.7 60.6 57.6 25.6 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------