***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.2 27.9 0.6 55.0 57.0 26.5 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.0 28.0 0.8 57.1 58.2 25.6 26.8 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 27.1 26.9 27.9 0.5 52.7 55.7 25.0 26.9 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.0 19.5 26.2 0.3 48.6 53.4 18.8 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.5 27.1 26.2 0.5 50.6 55.5 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.3 24.0 0.5 54.3 56.4 24.0 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.2 28.1 0.9 58.7 60.1 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.0 24.6 0.6 52.7 56.5 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 27.0 26.7 26.5 0.5 51.1 55.8 24.9 26.7 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.3 25.3 0.6 51.8 56.3 25.3 26.2 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.5 25.7 0.5 51.1 56.0 25.3 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.4 25.4 0.4 51.3 55.3 24.7 25.3 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.5 24.8 0.4 52.1 54.2 25.3 26.2 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.5 26.3 0.7 55.2 58.0 25.0 26.3 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.5 26.5 0.1 47.9 50.7 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.2 25.4 0.5 52.0 55.2 26.2 27.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 27.2 27.0 27.9 0.9 60.2 60.5 25.0 26.5 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.1 24.6 0.7 56.6 57.9 24.2 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 26.5 26.6 28.0 0.7 53.3 56.9 24.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.4 22.7 0.8 58.7 58.9 20.0 21.2 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 27.2 26.9 27.3 0.5 50.8 55.3 25.4 26.8 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.1 27.7 0.8 55.7 59.0 24.8 27.1 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 26.9 26.6 27.6 0.6 50.1 56.2 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.0 26.2 0.7 55.3 57.1 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.1 26.3 0.5 53.7 55.7 25.8 26.9 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.0 24.8 0.3 52.0 53.7 25.0 25.9 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.7 27.0 0.6 55.6 57.4 25.1 26.5 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.7 26.3 0.2 48.6 52.4 26.2 27.9 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.5 23.7 0.8 59.3 59.2 19.5 21.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.8 26.8 28.1 0.7 55.1 57.3 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------