***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 26.8 26.9 27.1 0.8 57.5 60.2 25.6 26.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 27.8 26.9 27.3 1.0 62.8 62.7 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 26.3 26.6 27.0 0.6 56.0 58.2 25.0 26.0 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 20.0 19.8 25.1 0.2 50.7 53.7 18.3 19.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 26.8 26.8 25.1 0.3 52.6 54.6 25.3 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 25.6 25.5 22.6 0.1 52.3 52.5 23.8 25.3 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 27.2 26.5 27.5 1.2 66.7 64.9 24.5 25.7 26.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.9 23.2 0.2 52.9 52.9 13.2 14.5 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 26.0 25.7 25.4 0.4 51.8 54.9 24.5 25.6 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 26.3 26.2 24.0 0.3 52.8 54.0 24.7 26.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 26.8 26.9 24.4 0.2 53.6 53.9 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 25.8 25.7 24.0 0.1 51.7 52.1 24.0 25.5 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 26.6 26.4 23.4 0.0 51.2 51.6 25.0 26.4 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 26.2 26.2 25.3 0.7 56.5 58.7 23.7 25.9 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 27.7 27.2 25.3 0.0 47.3 50.4 25.8 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 27.6 27.4 24.1 0.1 51.3 52.5 25.5 27.3 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 27.3 26.4 27.3 1.2 65.5 64.7 24.1 25.7 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 25.9 26.1 23.4 0.4 53.3 55.4 23.8 25.6 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 25.9 26.0 27.2 0.9 60.3 60.9 24.4 25.5 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 21.0 21.3 21.2 0.3 54.1 54.6 19.6 20.7 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 26.3 26.0 26.3 0.5 52.1 55.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.4 27.0 1.0 62.3 62.6 24.6 25.8 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 26.4 26.2 26.8 0.7 58.2 59.2 24.4 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 25.7 25.6 25.2 0.5 54.5 57.0 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 26.8 26.7 25.5 0.7 55.1 58.5 25.3 26.5 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 26.7 27.1 23.3 0.0 52.9 51.8 24.4 26.5 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 27.3 26.5 26.4 0.9 59.5 61.4 24.9 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 27.7 27.3 25.1 0.0 47.8 50.8 26.0 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 21.0 21.1 22.4 0.4 54.1 55.8 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 27.3 26.3 27.4 0.9 61.4 61.7 24.6 25.9 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------