***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 22.7 23.2 23.2 -1.6 26.4 30.2 23.4 24.4 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.8 23.5 23.6 -1.2 36.0 35.1 23.4 24.9 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 23.2 23.6 23.0 -2.0 25.2 27.2 24.3 25.1 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 15.6 15.3 20.4 -2.3 17.1 19.4 16.2 17.6 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 23.2 22.6 20.8 -2.6 15.1 18.7 24.9 25.7 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 22.3 20.4 18.2 -2.9 7.8 12.5 23.0 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.4 23.1 23.8 -1.0 38.4 37.9 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 11.9 10.0 18.4 -3.1 10.5 14.3 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 22.7 22.3 21.7 -2.5 16.7 20.5 23.9 24.8 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 22.4 21.3 19.6 -2.9 13.5 17.1 23.6 24.9 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 23.2 22.3 20.3 -2.8 12.0 16.3 24.2 25.2 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 22.1 21.3 19.3 -3.1 8.4 13.4 23.4 24.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 23.6 21.8 19.3 -3.1 5.1 12.6 24.4 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 22.6 23.0 21.5 -2.2 21.8 25.3 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 23.8 23.3 22.3 -2.1 17.7 21.0 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 24.0 22.9 20.0 -2.9 8.9 14.4 24.8 26.1 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.7 23.5 23.6 -0.9 40.1 39.2 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 22.0 21.5 18.8 -2.9 15.7 17.8 22.8 24.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.3 22.8 23.4 -1.5 32.1 32.7 22.8 24.6 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 17.8 17.2 16.5 -3.1 13.4 15.5 18.8 19.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 22.6 22.6 22.5 -2.4 20.4 22.5 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.2 23.3 -1.1 37.2 37.1 23.6 24.8 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 23.5 23.3 23.0 -1.8 27.6 29.3 23.4 25.1 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 22.2 22.2 21.0 -2.5 19.2 21.9 23.4 24.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 23.0 23.4 21.7 -2.0 24.4 25.6 24.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 23.2 21.8 18.6 -3.2 6.2 10.9 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 22.9 23.3 22.7 -1.6 26.9 30.4 23.5 24.2 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 23.3 22.7 21.0 -2.4 13.4 17.5 24.9 26.1 27.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 18.0 17.7 17.9 -2.9 15.4 17.8 18.1 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 23.5 23.3 23.6 -1.4 33.8 33.5 23.3 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------