***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.4 16.4 0.3 64.9 59.4 14.0 14.2 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.7 16.7 0.5 71.8 64.6 13.6 14.3 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.1 16.3 0.3 59.8 58.5 15.5 15.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.1 14.2 0.1 58.4 53.8 10.7 11.0 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.1 14.2 0.2 59.0 55.8 12.2 12.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 12.3 0.1 57.2 53.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.8 16.8 0.6 72.1 66.3 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.7 12.1 0.1 54.2 52.5 6.2 6.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.0 14.5 0.2 57.8 56.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.9 12.8 0.2 56.9 55.3 13.5 13.7 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.8 13.7 0.2 57.3 55.4 13.2 13.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 13.0 0.0 52.5 50.6 11.1 11.8 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.4 12.8 0.1 52.9 52.9 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.6 14.6 0.3 60.6 57.9 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.0 14.9 0.1 55.7 52.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.2 13.5 0.1 57.9 54.0 13.5 14.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 15.0 15.0 16.5 0.6 74.0 67.3 14.1 14.7 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.6 12.1 0.2 58.4 57.1 12.0 12.4 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.4 16.5 0.4 67.6 62.4 13.9 14.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.5 10.3 0.2 57.6 56.5 7.7 8.3 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 15.6 0.2 58.1 56.4 13.4 13.8 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.0 16.3 0.5 70.8 64.5 13.5 13.7 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.0 16.1 0.3 60.4 59.4 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 14.3 0.3 59.5 57.7 13.7 14.0 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.1 14.9 0.2 60.0 56.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.7 12.6 -0.2 47.9 45.9 12.1 12.7 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.1 15.7 0.3 64.7 59.6 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 14.6 0.1 57.4 52.1 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.0 11.6 0.3 60.1 58.4 10.3 10.8 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.7 16.7 0.5 67.9 62.8 14.1 14.5 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------