***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.5 17.6 0.6 67.3 61.7 14.3 14.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.6 17.7 0.6 69.2 61.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.7 16.6 17.5 0.5 63.5 59.8 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 13.3 11.6 15.4 0.1 53.3 56.0 10.2 11.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.1 13.8 15.4 0.3 58.2 58.6 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.3 12.6 13.8 0.4 60.7 60.0 11.6 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.7 15.3 17.8 0.7 68.8 62.5 14.4 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.0 13.6 0.4 60.5 60.2 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.6 14.8 15.7 0.3 59.8 58.8 13.6 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.5 14.5 14.1 0.4 60.9 59.9 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.3 14.6 15.0 0.3 59.1 59.9 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.5 14.5 0.3 57.4 58.3 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.5 13.8 14.0 0.2 55.5 57.2 13.1 13.5 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.4 15.2 15.7 0.4 62.0 59.5 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 15.8 -0.1 51.9 51.8 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 15.6 14.8 14.8 0.2 57.1 58.5 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 16.1 15.9 17.5 0.7 68.9 62.1 14.7 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.2 13.6 13.4 0.4 63.3 60.2 12.4 13.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.1 17.6 0.5 66.9 60.3 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.7 11.9 0.5 64.1 60.6 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 15.1 14.7 16.7 0.4 60.5 59.2 13.4 14.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.9 17.3 0.5 65.5 60.5 13.7 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.0 14.5 17.2 0.4 63.5 59.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.8 14.9 15.5 0.4 62.4 59.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 15.1 14.9 15.9 0.4 64.1 59.0 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 12.1 13.3 14.1 0.1 54.7 53.1 12.7 13.2 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.5 16.7 0.5 67.1 61.1 13.1 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.4 15.7 0.0 52.6 54.1 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.9 12.9 0.5 61.3 60.2 10.6 11.3 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.0 15.2 17.8 0.6 67.3 61.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------