***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.1 17.5 0.9 64.1 64.5 14.0 14.4 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.1 17.7 1.0 69.7 65.9 12.8 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.7 17.3 0.9 65.3 63.9 14.9 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.7 15.3 0.6 61.4 59.7 9.9 11.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.5 15.2 0.7 62.8 61.6 12.2 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.5 13.4 0.6 60.4 60.1 11.2 11.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.2 17.8 1.1 70.3 66.4 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 7.1 7.2 13.2 0.6 61.2 60.6 5.1 6.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.1 15.4 0.8 63.7 62.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.4 13.8 0.7 63.8 62.3 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.8 14.7 0.6 62.7 61.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.0 14.1 0.5 59.1 58.8 11.0 11.7 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.6 13.7 0.5 58.6 58.9 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 15.4 15.3 15.5 0.8 65.1 63.4 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.1 15.7 0.5 61.0 57.9 13.9 15.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.9 14.5 0.6 60.5 59.9 13.3 14.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.5 17.6 1.2 70.6 67.3 13.6 14.6 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.5 13.1 0.7 65.0 62.6 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 14.9 14.8 17.5 1.0 68.6 65.2 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 9.2 9.1 11.5 0.7 62.4 61.7 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.5 16.5 0.8 62.7 62.8 13.2 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 14.3 14.5 17.4 1.0 67.4 66.2 12.9 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 14.3 14.3 17.1 0.9 67.8 63.9 12.5 13.8 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.0 15.2 0.8 65.5 63.3 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.1 15.8 0.7 61.2 62.3 12.6 13.4 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 13.6 13.4 13.9 0.5 61.7 59.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.5 16.6 0.9 65.0 64.3 12.4 12.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.6 15.5 0.5 61.8 58.8 12.1 12.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.3 12.5 0.7 63.2 61.9 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.0 17.7 1.0 68.9 65.4 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------