***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.3 16.5 0.4 62.3 59.3 14.2 14.7 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.0 16.9 0.7 65.8 63.7 13.2 13.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.6 16.4 0.5 63.5 60.6 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 11.3 11.1 14.3 0.3 57.0 56.1 10.3 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.0 13.3 14.2 0.3 61.1 57.0 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 11.8 11.8 12.4 0.3 58.8 56.5 11.3 11.6 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.3 17.0 0.8 67.0 64.0 13.5 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 6.9 7.1 12.1 0.2 56.9 55.1 5.8 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.4 14.4 0.3 59.2 56.5 13.2 14.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.3 12.8 0.3 58.4 55.9 12.9 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 13.8 14.0 13.7 0.4 59.1 57.4 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.8 13.1 0.2 55.7 55.0 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.2 12.8 0.3 56.5 56.5 12.5 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.2 14.8 0.6 65.1 62.8 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.9 14.7 0.1 54.3 53.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 14.4 14.6 13.5 0.4 59.3 57.0 13.0 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.5 16.8 0.8 66.4 64.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.1 12.2 0.3 58.6 57.7 11.9 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.1 14.9 16.7 0.7 65.3 63.3 13.5 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.5 8.5 10.3 0.3 59.4 56.7 7.8 8.3 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.4 15.5 0.3 59.4 57.3 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.5 16.6 0.8 66.3 64.4 12.9 14.1 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.4 16.3 0.6 63.5 62.8 13.1 13.7 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.2 14.3 0.5 60.6 60.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.2 14.9 0.4 59.4 57.2 13.4 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.9 12.7 0.0 54.1 51.4 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 15.7 0.4 61.4 58.9 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.1 13.0 14.5 0.2 55.5 54.7 12.4 12.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.3 11.6 0.5 61.1 59.7 9.7 10.9 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.1 16.9 0.7 65.5 62.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------