***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.1 14.2 -0.6 43.9 43.6 12.7 13.4 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 13.6 13.1 14.3 -0.4 48.0 47.5 12.6 13.3 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.4 14.0 -0.6 44.5 42.2 14.0 14.6 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.3 9.5 11.9 -0.5 45.0 43.3 9.1 10.0 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 12.3 11.9 12.2 -0.5 40.4 41.5 11.1 12.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.0 9.8 -0.8 31.0 32.4 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 13.5 13.3 14.4 -0.3 47.3 48.0 12.9 13.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 4.8 9.5 -1.0 30.8 32.8 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.2 12.4 12.6 -0.5 39.7 41.0 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.5 10.6 -0.7 37.4 38.5 12.5 12.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.1 11.5 -0.6 39.0 39.1 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.2 10.2 -1.0 30.9 32.6 10.3 10.6 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.8 10.6 -0.7 36.3 36.5 11.8 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.2 12.3 -0.8 39.6 38.3 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.5 13.5 -0.3 48.8 47.1 13.0 13.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.4 11.3 -0.7 38.0 37.3 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 13.6 13.3 14.2 -0.2 49.2 50.9 13.1 13.4 14.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.2 9.8 -0.5 40.0 40.8 10.7 11.9 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 13.7 13.2 14.1 -0.5 46.3 45.1 12.7 13.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.5 7.6 -0.7 36.7 38.3 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 13.1 12.7 13.6 -0.6 42.1 40.7 12.3 12.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 13.3 13.0 14.0 -0.4 44.9 45.8 12.5 13.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 13.2 12.4 13.8 -0.6 44.2 42.8 12.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.2 12.6 12.1 -0.6 43.0 41.4 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 13.5 12.8 13.0 -0.6 44.0 42.8 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 10.7 10.9 9.8 -1.2 23.5 25.7 11.2 11.8 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 13.3 12.9 13.6 -0.5 45.2 44.4 12.2 13.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.6 12.5 -0.5 43.4 42.3 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.6 9.2 -0.5 40.3 41.6 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 13.9 13.5 14.4 -0.4 46.1 45.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------