***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 74.9 68.8 65.0 97.0 53.2 47.9 59.1 67.4 83.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 55.7 83.6 56.9 97.0 56.1 47.5 54.1 73.3 94.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 68.8 107.8 66.7 99.5 55.7 49.1 73.9 91.0 112.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 89.2 79.4 68.1 99.4 54.6 49.8 63.2 76.8 91.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 75.5 65.0 63.5 94.4 50.4 46.8 50.3 64.9 70.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 66.2 61.1 76.5 99.4 53.0 49.2 43.2 59.3 74.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 45.9 67.1 57.5 96.4 53.0 47.6 47.4 63.7 79.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 73.6 86.0 77.0 97.9 51.6 49.5 67.8 85.9 106.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 77.1 75.3 69.9 97.6 52.9 49.8 54.5 69.6 87.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 88.9 78.5 80.2 97.6 51.2 49.8 56.0 76.4 100.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 49.5 65.7 63.6 98.3 52.2 48.6 49.2 65.3 77.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 61.7 58.4 62.8 97.0 52.2 48.5 41.2 57.8 62.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 41.7 56.9 68.4 102.7 55.1 52.3 41.4 56.5 68.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 112.6 110.9 84.6 102.3 58.0 52.2 77.8 105.5 123.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 61.5 56.4 57.0 95.6 53.4 48.0 31.4 55.6 67.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 35.6 50.5 64.9 101.0 55.1 50.3 30.9 48.0 54.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 48.6 74.8 56.8 99.7 55.4 48.1 52.8 73.0 85.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 58.2 80.3 85.5 96.0 51.1 49.2 61.5 80.1 88.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 67.8 91.9 60.0 99.2 57.3 49.4 68.2 82.0 101.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 50.3 62.3 85.1 98.2 50.7 49.5 58.5 62.2 83.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 57.9 81.5 67.3 97.4 53.2 48.7 55.8 80.9 91.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 55.7 79.7 61.9 105.2 58.9 51.1 62.2 70.9 82.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 80.7 84.3 65.7 102.9 58.1 51.6 64.3 76.1 92.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 81.6 106.5 80.1 101.7 58.5 51.8 79.3 103.4 118.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 82.1 76.5 71.4 98.0 52.1 48.8 53.6 75.3 94.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 57.3 55.3 60.2 98.9 54.5 50.9 37.6 49.5 71.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 90.8 89.5 70.2 96.9 52.3 48.1 53.1 82.4 104.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 62.8 58.2 63.1 96.5 52.0 48.0 40.5 58.0 65.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 76.3 103.4 89.9 99.3 53.3 50.6 76.2 98.9 114.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 58.9 85.9 59.7 97.7 56.3 47.9 66.8 79.6 92.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------