***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.6 9.9 11.3 81.7 56.4 43.0 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 6.9 14.3 9.9 80.4 56.4 42.1 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.7 18.7 12.7 91.7 59.9 44.0 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.4 10.4 75.5 55.6 41.6 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.1 9.2 69.9 52.6 40.1 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.1 12.5 82.7 56.4 45.3 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.1 10.8 9.5 77.0 54.0 41.0 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.0 14.8 13.8 90.3 56.4 44.4 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.6 10.3 70.7 52.2 39.3 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.9 13.5 80.3 53.5 42.2 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.4 4.1 9.0 77.1 55.3 42.3 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.3 10.4 87.7 55.9 43.7 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.3 9.9 78.1 55.6 43.2 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 8.5 19.1 15.8 87.0 56.0 43.0 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.3 7.5 9.6 83.1 63.0 42.4 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.9 4.6 8.9 73.2 53.1 41.7 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.3 12.5 9.6 78.9 55.9 41.0 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.3 15.4 79.5 48.8 41.1 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.8 14.1 10.9 86.3 58.7 43.2 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.5 16.9 93.8 54.3 44.8 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.4 11.1 80.5 56.0 41.7 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.3 12.5 11.2 83.7 57.1 42.0 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.5 21.5 12.6 95.9 60.9 44.4 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 9.2 24.3 14.6 88.2 55.9 42.8 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.8 12.0 12.1 83.1 55.5 43.5 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.8 9.3 88.2 62.1 45.8 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.7 11.6 77.8 53.5 42.4 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.3 78.2 57.3 41.3 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.2 15.7 16.6 85.0 51.5 42.9 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.3 14.0 10.6 82.1 56.1 42.3 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------