***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.8 16.2 103.7 62.7 54.9 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.5 20.6 14.7 105.3 67.4 56.0 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.0 29.8 17.5 110.8 66.4 56.2 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.1 21.3 15.4 104.1 64.4 56.0 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.3 28.5 16.1 115.9 70.6 57.8 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.4 21.0 19.5 109.6 66.2 55.5 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.8 15.0 14.5 102.1 63.8 53.7 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.7 28.7 20.3 123.4 70.1 60.0 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.6 22.8 17.7 115.5 68.8 57.8 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.8 37.5 21.3 121.4 69.1 60.1 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 19.0 24.8 15.5 122.0 68.7 59.3 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.2 18.4 16.2 118.3 68.0 57.1 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.9 25.3 18.6 126.9 71.9 59.0 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.8 34.1 25.5 131.8 72.6 59.2 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.5 11.9 90.7 61.6 54.3 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.5 16.7 121.7 69.3 58.0 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.3 16.6 14.4 103.5 64.9 55.1 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 25.5 24.5 119.1 68.2 57.6 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.7 21.8 16.0 111.1 69.4 57.7 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.4 21.7 22.8 118.0 67.8 57.2 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.2 18.4 16.1 106.1 66.2 55.0 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 15.2 16.9 118.8 67.9 57.3 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.0 30.0 18.4 122.4 71.7 59.9 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.1 40.1 22.9 123.2 70.1 58.0 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.7 11.8 15.5 93.6 58.5 52.9 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.6 19.4 15.3 119.5 67.1 56.7 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.5 17.5 16.5 96.6 59.5 52.9 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.1 18.3 14.5 102.3 64.5 55.6 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 25.3 33.4 25.0 119.2 67.7 57.5 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.2 24.0 15.6 107.2 67.2 55.6 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------