***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 27.6 27.5 24.0 135.8 71.2 64.2 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.0 29.1 20.5 137.8 69.5 61.2 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 23.2 31.6 24.2 138.1 70.4 63.6 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 30.4 36.4 26.5 145.7 74.2 66.2 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.8 25.2 23.9 133.5 70.1 61.4 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 21.7 23.5 26.3 126.0 71.0 60.6 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 22.7 21.3 21.9 142.8 72.1 62.8 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.7 37.4 23.7 127.9 70.4 59.0 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 26.2 32.4 26.5 139.6 72.2 63.5 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.0 26.7 26.3 135.8 71.3 61.6 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 23.3 27.0 24.8 138.7 74.3 62.6 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.3 20.9 125.5 70.4 57.5 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 17.9 20.5 26.5 148.5 77.6 65.1 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.9 27.2 25.8 130.6 70.4 59.9 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 19.1 22.9 22.0 139.4 75.3 63.9 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.8 18.0 25.5 147.0 76.8 64.9 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 27.7 27.9 20.7 150.2 75.1 63.0 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.2 27.1 25.9 125.6 69.1 56.8 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.7 26.3 20.8 138.5 70.3 61.4 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 27.6 24.8 121.3 68.2 55.6 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 16.7 29.1 25.9 140.0 73.0 63.8 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 19.4 30.7 21.1 151.9 76.5 64.0 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 18.3 22.2 21.4 136.2 69.9 61.2 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.0 29.5 26.8 137.1 73.3 61.0 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 24.1 26.4 28.0 147.0 74.8 66.5 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 19.4 25.1 23.3 138.6 73.6 63.6 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 22.3 28.0 27.0 139.2 72.4 65.3 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 23.6 31.5 22.9 136.9 73.6 63.8 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 26.5 41.8 28.5 128.3 70.6 58.4 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.9 31.8 21.7 135.9 70.5 61.4 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------