***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.3 13.2 13.5 67.9 40.9 38.3 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.4 13.0 11.8 67.5 39.9 38.6 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 10.4 11.4 12.3 61.8 35.1 35.4 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.3 16.5 15.8 72.9 42.7 40.4 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.6 12.1 14.4 63.9 39.2 37.7 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.0 12.6 18.1 78.3 45.0 40.6 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.0 10.7 11.6 65.1 38.5 38.4 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 17.3 24.2 19.2 67.7 38.0 37.6 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 11.1 10.7 15.4 67.5 36.3 37.6 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.1 19.0 67.0 36.4 37.0 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.7 11.8 14.2 61.7 39.1 38.9 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.2 8.5 15.3 67.3 40.8 39.2 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.2 8.6 13.5 62.8 43.0 38.6 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.4 19.5 17.5 69.1 39.0 40.0 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.2 13.4 70.3 48.1 42.3 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.6 13.8 65.5 41.1 39.4 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.2 13.1 12.1 70.7 44.5 40.8 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 15.7 15.6 19.8 68.7 34.5 36.0 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.9 11.4 12.2 66.7 40.1 38.5 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.0 11.8 20.7 70.7 40.2 38.8 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 8.0 10.9 14.3 65.8 38.6 36.9 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.7 18.5 12.7 73.5 47.8 42.1 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.8 18.0 13.3 66.7 40.4 39.3 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 16.0 17.3 15.8 65.6 36.6 36.5 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.1 16.5 15.7 69.8 44.3 39.8 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 4.0 5.6 12.3 59.4 38.9 35.1 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.4 17.4 15.1 72.0 44.7 40.3 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.9 11.4 15.4 71.6 45.4 41.2 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 27.3 19.0 19.8 71.2 38.0 38.2 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.5 13.6 11.8 66.8 38.2 38.2 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------