***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 25.4 25.6 25.9 -0.4 45.6 44.3 25.3 25.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.7 25.9 -0.7 41.1 41.3 25.3 25.8 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 24.9 25.6 25.8 -0.8 39.1 39.8 25.5 25.7 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 18.1 18.4 22.9 -0.8 34.7 38.1 18.3 18.9 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.5 -1.0 29.9 35.1 25.7 26.2 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.3 21.3 -0.6 37.6 39.0 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.4 26.1 -0.3 45.4 45.8 25.1 25.5 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 13.5 14.0 21.6 -0.9 33.0 35.8 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 24.7 25.2 24.0 -0.9 31.8 36.2 25.2 25.7 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 24.8 25.1 22.5 -0.8 36.1 38.2 24.9 25.5 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 25.1 25.4 23.5 -1.0 29.7 34.3 25.6 25.9 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 24.2 24.2 22.9 -1.1 29.7 33.1 24.4 25.3 26.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 25.3 25.2 22.6 -1.2 26.6 31.9 25.5 26.5 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 24.7 25.1 23.8 -0.8 35.0 38.3 25.0 25.6 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 26.4 26.3 24.8 -0.8 35.9 38.0 26.2 26.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 25.8 25.9 23.0 -1.1 28.9 33.1 26.3 26.7 27.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.8 24.8 25.7 -0.6 41.6 42.2 24.7 25.2 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 24.2 24.6 21.8 -0.7 37.5 39.4 24.5 25.1 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.9 25.8 -0.9 38.0 38.7 24.9 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 19.7 20.0 19.2 -0.9 33.3 36.3 20.0 20.9 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 24.7 25.4 25.0 -0.8 33.4 37.8 25.4 25.7 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.4 25.6 -0.6 41.7 42.8 25.0 25.6 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 24.9 25.2 25.5 -1.1 34.0 36.1 25.1 25.7 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 24.2 25.0 23.7 -0.8 36.9 38.7 24.8 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 25.3 25.5 24.0 -0.7 36.8 40.3 25.4 25.8 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 25.0 25.4 22.6 -0.8 34.0 37.4 25.3 25.9 26.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 25.1 25.6 25.1 -0.4 44.8 44.7 25.2 25.7 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 26.1 26.2 23.5 -0.9 33.5 36.6 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 19.4 19.7 20.8 -0.8 34.7 37.9 19.6 20.4 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.5 26.0 -0.6 43.2 43.2 25.1 25.5 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------