***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.9 28.1 0.5 59.2 56.2 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.4 28.2 28.0 0.3 56.6 54.0 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 27.8 28.0 28.1 0.3 55.5 53.4 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.9 25.6 0.2 51.8 53.2 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.8 25.8 0.0 50.0 50.5 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 27.0 26.9 23.5 0.3 53.7 53.3 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.7 28.4 28.2 0.7 61.0 56.9 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.6 24.2 0.2 53.2 52.5 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.4 25.9 0.1 50.9 51.4 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.9 24.8 0.3 54.7 53.4 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.9 25.6 0.0 47.9 49.8 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 24.5 26.4 25.5 0.0 48.8 50.0 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 25.6 27.4 24.5 -0.1 47.8 49.5 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 27.8 27.7 25.6 0.1 54.1 52.7 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.5 26.9 0.3 54.3 54.1 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 26.3 27.6 25.2 0.0 47.7 50.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.1 27.8 27.9 0.5 59.5 55.0 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.3 24.2 0.5 58.8 55.5 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.1 27.9 0.1 53.9 52.2 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.5 23.0 21.7 0.4 56.6 55.4 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.6 27.0 0.2 52.9 52.4 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.5 28.5 27.7 0.5 59.8 54.9 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.5 26.9 27.7 -0.1 50.6 50.6 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.0 25.7 0.3 56.4 53.7 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.4 26.0 0.4 56.7 54.8 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.6 25.5 0.3 55.6 53.6 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.2 28.2 27.2 0.6 61.6 57.3 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.7 26.0 0.2 51.5 52.7 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.2 23.1 0.4 56.5 55.0 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.1 28.1 0.4 57.8 55.1 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------