***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.8 26.5 26.3 -0.8 42.4 42.4 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 24.4 26.2 26.2 -1.1 39.2 40.2 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 24.5 26.1 26.4 -1.1 40.2 40.0 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 17.6 18.7 23.9 -1.1 37.3 38.9 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 24.7 25.8 24.1 -1.3 33.5 37.3 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 23.6 24.3 22.0 -0.9 36.9 39.6 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 24.5 26.4 26.4 -0.8 43.8 43.4 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.3 22.5 -1.2 33.2 37.2 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 24.2 24.9 24.3 -1.2 35.5 38.1 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 24.4 25.4 23.1 -1.1 36.3 38.8 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 24.4 25.1 24.0 -1.4 31.9 36.6 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 24.0 24.4 23.8 -1.4 31.0 35.7 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 24.7 24.8 22.8 -1.5 30.2 35.3 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 24.3 25.3 24.0 -1.2 38.6 39.3 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 25.3 26.8 25.2 -1.1 37.7 39.5 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 25.0 26.2 23.5 -1.4 32.7 36.1 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 23.6 25.4 26.1 -1.0 39.5 41.1 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 23.9 25.1 22.6 -1.0 41.2 40.1 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 23.8 25.8 26.2 -1.3 38.0 38.6 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 19.3 19.7 19.9 -1.1 36.8 38.4 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 24.5 25.7 25.4 -1.1 37.3 39.4 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 24.3 26.1 25.9 -1.1 39.9 40.9 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 24.3 25.8 26.0 -1.4 37.5 37.5 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 23.9 25.4 24.1 -1.1 40.5 39.9 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 24.3 26.2 24.4 -0.9 41.2 40.9 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 24.6 25.2 23.6 -1.1 34.5 38.4 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 24.2 25.9 25.5 -0.7 44.1 43.3 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 25.3 26.8 24.2 -1.1 36.7 38.4 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 19.0 20.1 21.5 -1.0 38.2 39.3 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 24.4 25.9 26.4 -1.0 41.2 41.2 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------