***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.2 26.1 -0.3 49.7 49.6 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.5 25.7 26.1 -0.6 43.1 45.9 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.8 26.0 -0.6 42.4 46.1 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 19.7 19.2 23.1 -0.3 47.7 48.7 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.1 25.8 23.8 -0.6 42.3 45.9 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.3 21.8 0.0 53.0 51.5 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.4 26.3 -0.3 49.4 49.5 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 12.4 13.8 21.9 -0.6 41.5 46.1 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.4 24.4 -0.7 41.0 45.3 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 23.7 25.6 22.8 -0.5 43.5 47.2 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.3 25.6 24.0 -0.7 41.9 45.7 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 23.1 24.8 23.1 -0.7 40.7 45.0 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 24.3 25.7 23.2 -0.7 42.0 44.4 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 24.1 25.6 24.0 -0.9 40.2 43.1 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.1 25.3 -0.4 47.5 48.3 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 24.9 26.5 23.5 -0.6 42.5 45.4 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.8 25.8 -0.7 41.4 45.5 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.9 21.9 -0.6 40.6 46.3 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 23.8 25.1 26.0 -0.9 40.0 44.1 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 18.5 19.9 19.5 -0.7 39.5 44.5 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.6 25.3 -0.7 41.8 45.7 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.3 25.1 25.6 -0.7 40.0 44.6 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.0 25.0 25.6 -1.1 38.0 42.0 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 23.5 24.9 24.0 -0.7 40.6 45.2 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.2 24.4 -0.4 45.9 48.1 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 24.3 26.5 22.9 -0.3 48.1 48.5 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.5 25.9 25.4 -0.2 49.6 49.9 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.2 23.9 -0.4 46.9 48.0 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.5 21.0 -0.7 39.5 44.9 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.6 26.3 -0.4 47.8 47.9 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------