***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 25.0 23.7 22.9 -1.3 34.3 36.0 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.2 23.7 23.2 -1.4 32.8 36.1 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 22.8 24.0 22.7 -1.6 30.3 33.3 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 15.9 16.0 19.0 -1.8 25.6 26.7 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 23.4 23.5 20.2 -2.0 23.7 26.7 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 22.2 21.8 17.7 -2.0 22.6 24.4 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.1 23.2 23.3 -1.1 35.1 39.2 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 11.7 11.7 17.9 -2.0 22.7 25.9 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.4 21.4 -1.7 26.3 29.6 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 22.7 22.9 19.2 -1.7 26.1 29.6 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 23.3 23.4 20.6 -2.1 24.0 26.6 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 22.1 22.3 18.9 -2.3 20.9 23.3 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 23.7 23.4 19.8 -2.5 19.7 22.1 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.9 23.3 21.4 -1.3 31.8 35.1 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 23.8 24.1 21.9 -2.1 23.1 24.3 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 24.0 23.9 19.9 -2.3 21.9 23.6 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.9 23.4 23.0 -1.3 34.3 38.0 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 22.1 22.9 18.3 -1.6 27.1 30.6 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.5 23.0 -1.6 31.4 34.3 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 17.7 17.7 15.7 -2.0 22.0 24.5 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.5 22.2 -1.7 27.8 30.3 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.0 23.1 -1.1 35.9 39.4 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 23.0 23.4 22.7 -1.8 30.3 32.5 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 22.4 23.7 21.1 -1.5 30.0 32.9 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 23.0 23.3 21.3 -1.7 28.8 30.1 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 23.2 23.1 18.3 -2.2 21.3 23.6 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.1 23.5 22.3 -1.3 33.4 35.0 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 24.0 23.9 20.1 -2.1 22.5 24.3 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 17.8 17.8 17.5 -1.7 25.5 29.1 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.1 23.7 23.3 -1.3 33.8 37.0 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------