***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.6 -0.6 35.5 38.6 13.7 14.2 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.5 -0.7 34.9 37.7 13.4 14.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.1 15.2 15.7 -0.7 33.4 35.4 15.2 15.8 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 10.3 10.2 12.9 -0.7 30.5 34.0 10.3 10.9 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.0 13.2 -0.8 29.5 32.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.0 11.0 -0.6 32.7 35.7 11.0 11.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.9 15.6 -0.5 38.2 40.5 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.6 6.0 10.7 -0.8 28.6 31.1 6.0 6.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 13.1 13.2 13.3 -0.8 28.3 31.3 13.3 13.8 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 12.9 13.1 11.6 -0.8 29.8 32.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 12.8 12.8 12.6 -0.9 27.3 30.2 13.1 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 10.8 10.7 11.6 -0.8 28.0 30.8 11.0 11.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 12.2 12.1 11.4 -0.8 26.9 31.2 12.5 13.1 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.8 13.3 -0.7 31.5 33.6 13.8 14.2 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 -0.7 29.7 33.2 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.0 12.1 -0.8 26.9 30.7 13.5 13.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.0 15.3 -0.6 34.0 39.0 13.9 14.6 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 11.6 10.9 -0.6 31.9 34.2 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.7 15.4 -0.8 33.2 35.0 13.7 13.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.4 8.8 -0.7 28.6 32.3 7.5 8.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.3 14.6 -0.8 31.0 33.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 -0.6 34.6 38.6 13.3 13.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 12.9 13.0 15.1 -1.0 30.8 31.5 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.5 13.1 -0.7 32.3 34.4 13.5 13.7 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.2 -0.7 32.4 35.7 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 11.9 11.9 11.0 -0.6 32.1 35.6 12.0 12.6 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.0 -0.5 37.0 39.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 12.0 11.7 13.4 -0.7 28.7 32.8 12.1 12.8 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 10.0 9.9 10.2 -0.8 27.9 31.4 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 13.7 14.0 15.7 -0.6 36.4 38.3 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------