***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.4 17.1 0.0 49.1 49.7 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 13.4 14.4 17.1 0.0 52.8 49.9 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.0 17.3 -0.1 49.3 49.1 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.1 14.6 -0.2 47.2 48.5 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.0 14.5 -0.2 46.3 48.3 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.1 12.9 0.1 49.7 52.5 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 13.7 14.6 17.2 0.1 54.1 51.3 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.1 12.5 0.0 47.4 50.2 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.2 14.7 -0.1 47.3 49.0 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.1 13.3 0.0 48.4 50.6 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 14.1 -0.2 44.4 48.4 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.0 13.3 -0.1 45.7 48.7 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.0 12.6 -0.1 46.5 48.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.8 14.7 -0.1 49.6 49.2 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.1 16.0 -0.1 46.6 48.5 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.9 13.5 -0.2 44.6 48.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 14.4 15.2 16.9 0.0 55.1 50.8 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 12.5 0.1 50.3 51.6 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.4 14.3 17.1 -0.1 50.6 48.8 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.9 10.3 0.1 50.8 51.6 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.1 16.1 -0.1 46.9 48.8 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.4 14.4 16.9 0.1 55.6 52.2 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.7 16.8 -0.2 49.3 47.8 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.5 14.6 0.0 49.8 50.3 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.2 15.5 -0.2 46.0 48.4 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.9 12.5 -0.1 47.6 49.2 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.6 16.3 0.0 48.8 49.9 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.4 13.3 15.0 -0.1 46.6 48.5 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.4 11.9 0.1 49.4 51.3 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.6 17.3 0.0 52.3 50.5 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------