***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 13.6 14.0 16.2 -0.7 37.4 42.4 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 12.5 13.0 16.1 -0.8 37.1 41.4 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 14.6 15.0 16.3 -0.9 33.5 39.8 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 9.6 10.0 13.7 -0.8 36.4 39.5 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 11.5 11.7 13.6 -0.9 32.4 38.2 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.8 -0.6 32.8 40.3 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.5 16.2 -0.7 38.7 43.0 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.0 5.2 11.4 -0.8 31.8 38.1 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.9 13.8 -0.8 31.9 39.0 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 12.6 12.9 12.3 -0.7 33.6 39.4 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.1 -0.9 30.9 37.7 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 10.2 10.7 12.3 -0.9 31.3 37.5 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.3 11.8 -0.7 31.6 38.6 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 13.1 13.4 13.8 -0.8 33.0 39.7 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 13.9 14.2 15.1 -0.7 36.7 39.7 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 12.9 12.8 12.6 -0.8 31.2 37.9 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 13.1 13.7 16.0 -0.8 37.2 41.9 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.9 11.5 -0.7 35.0 40.1 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.3 16.0 -0.9 35.2 40.1 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.6 9.3 -0.7 33.7 39.0 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.9 15.2 -0.8 32.6 39.3 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.9 15.8 -0.8 38.4 42.0 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 12.2 12.4 15.8 -0.9 32.4 38.8 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.6 -0.7 33.7 40.0 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.6 14.7 -0.7 36.8 41.3 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 11.5 11.7 11.7 -0.6 35.6 40.2 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.0 12.5 15.6 -0.6 39.6 43.0 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 11.7 12.1 14.0 -0.8 35.5 39.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.6 10.8 -0.7 33.9 38.7 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.6 16.3 -0.8 37.5 41.7 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------