***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.7 16.5 0.3 53.2 54.2 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 12.9 14.1 16.2 0.0 47.0 50.6 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.7 16.4 0.0 46.7 50.8 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.9 13.8 0.2 53.9 53.0 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.8 14.1 0.0 49.5 50.4 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 11.7 0.3 58.4 56.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.5 16.4 0.2 51.8 52.8 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.5 11.3 -0.2 46.0 48.5 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.0 14.2 0.0 47.9 49.4 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.6 12.3 -0.1 47.5 49.5 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.4 13.4 -0.2 46.5 47.8 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.5 12.3 -0.1 47.2 48.7 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.4 12.3 0.0 49.8 50.6 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.3 13.8 -0.3 42.8 46.1 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 15.5 0.3 55.6 54.4 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.3 13.0 0.0 47.3 49.7 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.6 14.3 16.0 -0.1 45.8 49.8 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.8 11.6 0.0 49.5 50.0 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 13.0 14.0 16.1 -0.2 44.0 48.3 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.1 9.5 -0.2 46.0 48.0 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 15.5 0.0 47.8 50.9 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 12.5 13.6 15.8 -0.3 44.0 47.4 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.4 15.7 -0.4 39.4 44.8 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.6 13.8 -0.1 46.3 49.0 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.2 15.3 0.3 54.5 54.1 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.0 11.8 0.3 57.0 55.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.4 16.1 0.4 57.5 55.7 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.0 14.2 0.2 53.4 52.5 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.4 10.8 -0.2 44.6 46.8 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.4 16.5 0.1 49.1 51.9 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------