***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 11.3 11.2 12.5 -1.9 18.4 20.6 12.2 13.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 11.5 11.6 12.6 -1.8 21.4 23.7 12.0 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 12.9 12.6 12.6 -2.0 17.4 19.6 13.8 14.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 7.9 7.5 9.6 -2.2 13.9 15.8 8.6 9.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 9.7 9.2 10.4 -2.1 14.3 16.6 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 8.9 8.7 7.6 -2.1 11.6 13.4 9.9 11.0 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 11.9 11.9 12.6 -1.7 20.9 24.6 12.4 13.2 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 3.7 3.6 7.5 -2.2 13.2 14.3 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 11.2 10.9 10.4 -2.3 11.7 13.7 11.7 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 10.8 10.7 8.5 -2.2 13.1 14.3 12.1 12.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 10.5 10.2 9.9 -2.3 11.7 13.4 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 8.9 8.6 8.5 -2.2 12.0 14.1 9.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.0 -2.1 10.7 13.1 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 11.8 11.7 10.7 -1.8 18.0 21.2 12.5 13.1 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 12.2 11.5 11.5 -2.3 9.9 12.0 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 10.7 10.5 9.5 -2.2 11.4 13.7 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.5 -1.6 23.8 26.0 12.5 13.6 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 9.4 9.4 8.1 -2.0 16.0 17.3 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 12.0 11.7 12.4 -2.0 19.8 21.7 12.3 13.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 5.6 5.6 6.1 -2.0 15.5 17.0 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 11.1 11.0 11.7 -2.1 13.4 15.4 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 11.5 11.3 12.7 -1.6 23.3 26.2 11.9 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 10.7 10.4 12.1 -2.3 15.7 17.6 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 11.3 11.1 10.5 -1.9 16.6 18.8 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 11.2 10.8 11.4 -2.1 15.1 17.6 11.7 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 9.7 9.4 8.0 -1.9 14.5 17.0 11.1 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 11.3 11.2 12.1 -1.8 18.7 21.8 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 10.1 9.8 10.2 -2.2 11.7 14.1 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 7.9 7.6 7.2 -2.1 14.6 15.7 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 12.1 11.9 12.7 -1.9 20.7 22.5 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------