***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 57.5 59.0 37.4 66.7 31.8 31.4 59.1 67.4 83.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 52.5 54.1 38.9 71.1 33.1 33.6 54.1 73.3 94.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 62.3 73.9 40.8 72.9 33.0 34.2 73.9 91.0 112.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 53.4 69.4 52.6 79.9 38.7 35.5 63.2 76.8 91.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 50.2 62.7 54.5 81.5 41.2 37.2 50.3 64.9 70.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 41.0 46.4 68.9 84.2 38.8 39.5 43.2 59.3 74.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 43.5 47.7 38.3 68.0 33.9 33.0 47.4 63.7 79.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 73.4 83.3 66.3 92.4 46.2 45.0 67.8 85.9 106.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 52.4 56.4 52.7 77.4 38.9 35.8 54.5 69.6 87.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 57.8 69.6 66.6 85.4 42.8 41.1 56.0 76.4 100.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 47.4 64.1 49.8 86.6 47.2 40.1 49.2 65.3 77.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 38.4 57.4 49.0 88.6 47.8 42.7 41.2 57.8 62.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 37.8 55.7 53.0 84.6 44.9 38.9 41.4 56.5 68.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 75.8 93.6 59.4 83.0 42.8 40.1 77.8 105.5 123.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 27.5 22.5 40.5 68.7 27.0 31.1 31.4 55.6 67.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 34.7 41.9 50.4 85.8 44.3 39.3 30.9 48.0 54.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 45.5 59.5 36.3 66.5 35.1 32.0 52.8 73.0 85.2 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 59.0 79.7 76.0 88.2 48.4 43.7 61.5 80.1 88.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 61.7 68.3 39.5 74.1 33.7 34.5 68.2 82.0 101.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 50.8 62.6 82.1 96.6 51.7 48.0 58.5 62.2 83.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 51.1 56.4 42.3 72.1 33.4 33.0 55.8 80.9 91.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 53.4 67.5 39.7 75.2 39.8 35.7 62.2 70.9 82.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 61.1 68.9 41.8 77.2 36.5 36.6 64.3 76.1 92.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 78.7 90.3 60.2 82.2 43.5 40.4 79.3 103.4 118.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 47.0 54.2 49.5 73.2 34.5 33.7 53.6 75.3 94.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 41.2 46.3 46.4 86.9 44.6 41.2 37.6 49.5 71.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 51.6 51.7 45.6 69.0 31.4 32.3 53.1 82.4 104.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 37.2 40.6 47.4 76.0 33.3 34.3 40.5 58.0 65.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 75.1 95.0 75.5 90.2 47.8 44.1 76.2 98.9 114.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 53.4 66.8 39.5 71.8 32.4 34.2 66.8 79.6 92.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------