***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.9 5.8 62.1 56.3 42.9 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.0 6.8 72.3 59.9 45.1 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.9 19.4 7.6 74.2 60.9 44.3 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.1 14.7 11.0 94.4 64.6 48.3 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.9 13.3 11.4 88.7 62.4 45.9 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.1 12.6 76.5 61.5 47.1 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.2 6.5 67.7 60.9 45.1 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 17.6 12.1 84.7 59.1 46.2 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.0 11.6 87.6 58.9 44.0 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.8 13.2 85.9 57.7 45.0 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.5 9.0 80.6 62.0 47.9 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.8 8.2 77.5 62.0 47.3 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.6 9.1 75.6 60.2 48.3 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.0 25.5 13.2 92.2 64.2 46.3 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.2 8.4 8.5 95.5 65.4 50.5 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 8.3 8.7 79.7 62.2 50.3 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.3 6.8 76.7 59.9 45.3 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.3 15.9 88.7 59.5 45.3 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 7.2 77.2 60.9 45.4 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.2 15.9 91.4 57.7 47.7 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.6 15.2 9.0 82.6 61.1 43.5 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.5 7.4 84.9 59.4 46.5 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.5 21.8 8.4 84.5 64.0 46.0 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 9.9 27.7 13.0 86.7 61.4 44.7 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.1 10.5 89.3 63.4 46.7 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.4 7.7 81.5 67.1 51.9 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.4 8.2 70.8 59.2 45.6 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.5 9.2 86.1 63.0 49.2 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 16.1 15.4 85.1 58.3 44.2 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.3 15.4 6.5 68.4 59.7 44.0 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------