***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.9 11.8 90.3 61.9 48.6 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.9 16.0 12.1 87.1 57.4 48.8 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.1 20.8 12.1 85.8 57.8 47.9 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.0 25.2 14.9 110.2 67.0 54.4 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.9 21.4 15.6 103.5 63.7 52.3 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.4 20.4 22.3 111.8 65.8 55.3 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.3 13.7 12.3 90.6 60.6 48.6 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.9 18.0 109.3 63.6 53.0 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.6 17.2 14.7 86.7 58.9 47.8 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.2 31.3 18.5 97.4 59.6 50.2 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 19.1 24.7 14.9 116.3 66.3 54.1 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.5 18.8 13.7 117.1 68.8 55.5 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.6 25.3 16.2 111.2 69.0 54.9 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 12.5 21.7 17.1 86.1 54.7 47.9 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.5 11.3 98.9 65.4 52.2 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.5 15.5 119.2 69.3 54.8 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.3 11.4 84.0 58.0 48.0 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 17.3 20.5 94.5 54.6 49.3 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.4 17.6 11.9 84.8 57.6 48.3 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.9 19.7 20.1 96.2 56.5 47.6 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.2 11.6 85.2 59.2 47.7 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.8 10.3 12.8 95.3 61.0 49.2 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.7 14.1 12.1 82.5 56.8 47.6 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.3 22.1 17.1 88.4 55.2 48.6 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.1 17.8 13.5 91.1 62.1 49.0 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.5 22.2 12.1 110.7 70.1 56.4 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.7 17.5 13.6 88.5 59.3 47.4 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.3 18.6 14.4 112.1 67.2 54.5 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 31.8 19.7 92.8 56.1 47.8 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.1 22.3 12.4 89.4 59.2 48.4 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------