***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.8 20.4 11.1 82.8 60.3 47.8 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.9 26.5 11.2 80.1 58.8 49.6 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.8 10.4 80.5 58.8 48.6 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.3 27.9 15.6 93.4 62.6 49.5 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.1 16.7 15.5 94.7 58.9 48.4 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.3 21.3 89.7 56.3 46.0 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.1 13.2 11.5 80.6 60.1 49.5 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.2 33.7 20.1 114.4 61.7 53.2 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.5 14.1 13.9 85.5 53.7 45.6 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.0 17.7 18.8 99.7 56.6 49.7 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.5 22.9 15.2 111.7 67.0 52.1 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.6 14.9 117.5 66.3 52.6 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.8 17.5 16.3 104.0 59.3 48.6 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.4 18.2 14.4 89.1 57.9 47.4 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.5 13.2 81.9 57.8 46.7 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.1 15.4 105.3 63.5 51.1 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 18.7 18.5 9.8 70.4 57.0 45.8 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 21.1 20.1 96.4 59.0 49.9 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.7 21.8 10.5 80.4 58.6 48.8 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 22.5 23.3 111.8 63.1 54.2 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.0 10.8 80.5 55.6 46.0 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.7 10.3 78.2 59.4 46.4 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.5 10.1 82.1 59.7 48.0 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.3 15.1 90.7 59.0 49.0 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.6 14.8 91.0 58.4 47.6 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.9 18.6 14.1 118.5 62.9 52.8 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.6 24.1 14.0 89.5 60.9 48.2 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.3 22.8 14.1 86.1 62.5 48.4 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.2 32.4 20.3 103.1 62.4 51.5 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 24.5 27.6 11.5 82.0 60.7 50.3 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------