***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 8.3 7.5 8.7 43.0 22.2 24.7 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 4.6 6.0 8.8 50.5 27.9 26.4 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 9.3 10.5 10.8 57.3 30.7 28.0 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 5.7 5.5 11.0 46.3 23.6 24.1 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 7.2 7.7 12.0 53.3 26.3 26.5 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 7.1 9.0 12.6 58.8 30.9 31.3 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 3.7 6.0 8.0 42.5 24.3 24.6 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 15.8 24.3 16.2 69.2 39.3 35.9 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 11.6 10.2 12.5 57.8 34.6 30.4 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 8.8 10.1 16.1 65.2 36.4 33.6 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 7.6 8.7 10.7 53.9 27.0 28.5 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 6.4 8.0 12.1 60.2 35.2 33.0 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 5.1 6.4 11.5 56.6 32.3 30.5 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 14.7 19.0 14.7 69.4 38.5 34.3 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 3.0 1.6 7.5 33.5 20.1 19.2 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 4.6 5.8 10.9 53.9 27.7 28.4 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 5.0 9.0 8.3 45.5 29.2 25.1 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 14.4 19.1 19.4 75.9 40.1 37.0 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 4.8 5.6 10.0 58.7 33.0 28.5 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.1 14.8 22.8 88.3 47.6 42.0 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 6.9 9.0 10.9 52.9 30.7 27.7 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 4.9 10.5 9.2 52.8 30.7 26.2 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 6.3 16.4 11.2 65.1 37.2 31.6 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 13.3 17.2 15.0 67.8 35.4 32.8 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 7.5 7.6 10.6 43.1 23.4 23.7 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 4.5 5.2 12.6 59.8 35.5 31.7 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 5.3 3.6 9.8 41.6 21.6 23.8 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 5.6 5.1 9.8 43.6 23.9 23.4 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 14.8 22.6 20.0 81.3 42.4 38.2 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 6.2 7.9 9.0 51.5 27.9 26.7 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------