***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.9 27.3 0.8 66.1 62.8 25.3 25.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 26.6 26.5 27.6 0.9 66.3 63.0 25.3 25.8 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.1 27.1 0.5 59.8 59.0 25.5 25.7 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.1 19.7 25.3 0.6 65.1 61.7 18.3 18.9 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 26.6 27.1 25.3 0.5 64.8 59.0 25.7 26.2 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.8 23.0 0.4 62.9 58.6 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 26.5 26.1 27.7 1.0 67.4 65.3 25.1 25.5 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.2 23.5 0.5 62.9 58.8 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.3 25.7 0.5 62.6 58.4 25.2 25.7 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.0 24.1 0.4 61.3 57.1 24.9 25.5 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 26.2 27.2 24.9 0.6 65.7 60.1 25.6 25.9 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 25.5 26.2 24.7 0.7 67.2 62.3 24.4 25.3 26.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 26.7 27.2 24.2 0.5 65.0 60.6 25.5 26.5 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.7 25.1 0.3 55.3 55.6 25.0 25.6 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 27.5 27.6 26.4 0.9 69.3 65.5 26.2 26.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 27.0 27.7 24.7 0.6 65.3 60.6 26.3 26.7 27.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.9 27.2 0.8 62.2 61.7 24.7 25.2 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.2 23.3 0.3 58.2 54.9 24.5 25.1 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.7 27.4 0.7 63.2 61.1 24.9 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 21.1 21.5 21.1 0.2 58.8 54.2 20.0 20.9 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.6 26.6 0.5 63.9 59.6 25.4 25.7 26.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 25.8 26.0 26.8 0.6 59.8 58.8 25.0 25.6 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 26.0 25.9 26.9 0.6 59.4 59.3 25.1 25.7 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.2 25.1 0.3 55.4 55.3 24.8 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.7 25.7 0.7 67.1 62.4 25.4 25.8 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.8 24.1 0.7 69.2 63.3 25.3 25.9 26.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 26.5 26.5 26.5 0.8 68.1 63.9 25.2 25.7 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 27.2 27.7 25.8 0.7 67.5 63.0 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.6 22.3 0.2 56.9 54.1 19.6 20.4 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 26.4 26.2 27.7 0.9 66.4 63.0 25.1 25.5 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------