***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.7 29.0 1.2 68.6 63.3 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 29.1 29.4 29.4 1.3 70.4 63.7 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.4 28.9 0.9 66.2 60.6 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 22.3 21.6 27.1 0.8 64.8 59.5 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 29.9 29.2 27.0 0.8 62.9 59.2 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.7 24.6 0.6 62.8 56.5 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.1 29.4 1.4 70.2 64.7 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.2 17.3 25.2 0.8 63.6 58.3 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.0 27.2 0.8 64.3 59.3 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 28.3 25.8 0.8 62.5 58.4 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 28.1 28.6 26.5 0.8 63.4 59.0 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 24.6 27.5 26.4 0.9 66.1 59.3 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 28.2 28.0 25.8 0.7 62.6 57.7 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 25.1 28.5 26.7 0.7 60.5 57.0 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 29.8 29.7 27.7 0.9 68.7 60.1 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 28.9 29.0 26.3 0.7 61.9 57.9 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 28.3 28.1 29.0 1.2 68.5 62.9 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 24.8 27.3 25.0 0.7 58.8 57.6 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.8 28.9 29.2 1.2 69.3 62.4 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.7 23.8 22.9 0.6 59.0 56.7 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.3 28.2 0.9 67.2 60.4 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 28.8 29.0 28.6 1.0 66.3 60.7 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.0 28.7 1.0 67.4 60.4 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.4 28.2 26.7 0.7 61.2 57.9 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.3 27.2 1.0 68.9 61.9 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.1 26.0 0.8 63.3 58.4 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 28.6 28.7 28.1 1.2 69.0 63.6 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 29.8 29.9 27.4 0.8 65.4 59.0 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 20.0 23.3 24.0 0.6 58.5 56.8 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 29.3 29.0 29.4 1.3 69.5 63.5 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------