***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.6 28.1 0.9 64.0 60.2 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.9 28.3 1.0 66.4 60.6 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 26.9 26.8 28.0 0.8 61.6 58.5 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 20.1 20.3 26.4 0.9 68.9 61.2 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.1 27.2 26.2 0.8 64.3 59.3 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.8 26.1 24.1 0.9 66.3 60.7 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 27.3 27.1 28.4 1.1 69.1 61.9 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.6 24.6 0.9 66.6 59.6 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.2 26.5 0.8 63.0 58.7 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.5 25.1 0.8 63.2 58.4 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.1 25.8 0.9 67.4 60.1 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 27.0 26.2 25.8 1.1 69.3 61.2 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 26.8 27.7 25.1 0.9 66.5 60.0 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.6 25.9 0.6 62.8 56.8 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 28.2 28.6 27.1 1.1 74.0 64.1 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 27.5 28.8 25.6 0.9 67.3 60.4 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.7 28.0 0.9 65.9 59.7 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.7 24.4 0.7 62.4 57.4 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.6 28.2 0.9 64.8 59.8 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.4 22.3 0.7 60.8 57.3 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 26.9 27.0 27.4 0.8 63.0 59.1 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.8 27.6 0.7 64.0 57.9 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 26.6 27.0 27.7 0.8 64.7 58.8 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.3 26.0 0.7 62.1 56.9 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 27.2 27.5 26.4 0.9 66.0 60.3 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.9 25.3 1.0 67.1 60.9 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.7 27.2 1.0 66.6 60.6 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 28.4 28.3 26.8 1.1 71.3 62.7 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.2 21.3 23.4 0.7 61.2 57.0 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.8 26.7 28.4 1.0 65.3 60.6 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------