***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.7 26.8 0.2 57.0 53.0 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.0 27.0 0.2 56.7 54.4 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.2 26.6 -0.1 51.3 50.2 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.7 25.1 0.3 53.4 54.6 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 24.5 26.6 24.9 0.1 50.5 52.7 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.2 22.8 0.3 52.9 54.7 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.8 27.2 0.4 60.3 56.0 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.3 23.2 0.2 52.6 53.5 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 23.5 25.7 25.1 0.0 49.2 51.0 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 23.8 25.7 23.8 0.0 48.9 51.0 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.9 24.4 0.3 53.3 53.8 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.9 24.4 0.4 55.9 55.8 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.1 27.1 23.7 0.3 54.2 54.9 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.5 25.8 24.6 -0.3 42.9 48.3 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.9 25.8 0.6 59.0 57.3 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.8 24.3 0.3 53.9 54.3 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.7 26.7 0.2 57.2 53.8 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.1 23.0 -0.1 47.6 49.6 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.4 26.8 0.0 53.6 52.4 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.3 21.0 0.0 49.4 51.1 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 24.2 26.1 26.0 0.0 49.6 51.1 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.9 26.3 0.0 54.0 51.0 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.3 25.6 26.3 -0.2 48.1 49.9 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.1 24.6 -0.3 44.9 48.5 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.6 25.2 0.3 56.2 54.0 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.7 23.9 0.6 56.8 58.0 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.2 26.0 0.3 57.9 54.5 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.9 25.4 0.5 55.4 55.6 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.4 22.0 -0.1 47.2 49.4 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.7 27.1 0.1 56.6 53.9 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------