***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 24.8 24.4 25.4 0.8 57.3 60.1 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 25.0 26.3 25.7 1.0 63.5 62.5 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.1 25.1 25.1 0.6 56.1 57.1 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.8 17.3 22.6 0.5 56.8 56.6 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.7 25.4 23.1 0.2 53.0 52.7 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 24.2 23.6 20.4 -0.2 44.9 48.5 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 26.4 27.1 25.8 1.2 69.5 65.0 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 13.3 12.8 20.7 0.0 48.6 49.5 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 25.1 24.7 24.1 0.3 54.2 53.8 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 24.8 24.1 21.9 0.0 49.1 49.9 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.6 25.3 22.8 0.2 52.1 52.0 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 24.4 24.1 22.0 0.3 54.0 53.7 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.5 22.2 0.2 51.9 52.3 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 25.1 24.9 23.3 0.3 58.4 53.7 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 25.9 26.2 25.3 0.8 61.1 61.8 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.4 22.6 0.3 53.8 53.4 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 24.8 25.2 25.2 0.9 62.8 61.8 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.7 20.7 -0.2 47.6 47.7 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 24.4 25.4 25.4 0.8 59.2 59.9 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 19.8 19.1 18.3 -0.5 43.3 45.2 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.1 24.7 25.0 0.5 56.1 55.9 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 25.0 25.1 24.8 0.7 58.6 59.3 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 25.0 24.8 24.8 0.6 57.4 57.9 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 24.6 24.2 23.1 0.1 53.5 51.8 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.3 24.9 24.1 0.7 57.8 58.7 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.8 25.8 21.4 0.4 58.2 55.2 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.7 24.8 0.9 61.0 61.2 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.3 23.7 0.6 58.6 58.1 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.2 18.7 19.8 -0.3 46.6 46.4 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 25.0 26.2 25.8 1.0 64.6 62.6 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------