***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.3 16.7 0.2 59.5 55.1 13.7 14.2 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.3 16.8 0.3 60.4 57.0 13.4 14.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.8 16.5 0.0 54.7 51.6 15.2 15.8 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.1 14.5 0.2 56.7 54.7 10.3 10.9 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 14.2 0.1 54.7 52.6 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.9 12.2 0.2 58.6 54.4 11.0 11.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.6 16.9 0.4 61.9 59.1 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.7 12.2 0.2 58.6 56.4 6.0 6.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.8 14.6 0.1 54.1 53.0 13.3 13.8 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.8 13.0 0.1 54.9 53.5 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 13.8 0.2 58.8 55.4 13.1 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.9 13.3 0.3 61.6 58.4 11.0 11.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.2 12.8 0.1 57.4 53.7 12.5 13.1 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.3 14.5 0.0 52.0 50.6 13.8 14.2 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.9 15.5 0.2 59.8 55.7 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 13.5 0.2 58.9 55.0 13.5 13.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.7 16.4 0.3 59.3 56.2 13.9 14.6 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.4 12.3 0.1 55.3 53.0 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.2 16.6 0.2 57.7 54.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 10.2 0.1 55.5 52.8 7.5 8.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.8 15.9 0.1 54.6 53.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.6 16.2 0.1 54.0 52.5 13.3 13.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.5 16.2 0.1 54.6 52.4 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 14.3 0.0 53.4 51.1 13.5 13.7 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.8 15.2 0.1 55.8 53.3 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.7 12.7 0.2 56.2 56.6 12.0 12.6 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.7 15.9 0.2 59.8 55.6 13.2 13.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 14.9 0.3 61.9 57.8 12.1 12.8 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 11.6 0.1 55.5 53.8 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.4 16.9 0.3 59.7 56.7 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------