***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.2 17.5 0.3 62.0 54.3 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.9 17.7 0.4 60.1 56.3 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 17.3 0.1 56.0 52.0 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 15.4 0.3 55.5 53.3 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 15.0 0.3 56.9 53.0 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.2 13.1 0.3 55.4 54.4 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 14.5 15.1 17.7 0.5 63.0 57.3 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.6 13.1 0.3 61.0 55.0 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.2 15.3 0.2 57.9 52.2 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.2 13.7 0.2 58.4 52.5 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.2 14.6 0.4 58.6 54.9 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.6 14.2 0.5 61.5 57.4 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.6 13.7 0.5 60.3 57.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.0 15.2 0.1 56.3 51.6 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.7 16.1 0.4 57.1 55.2 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.7 14.4 0.5 59.6 56.1 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.8 17.2 0.3 57.9 55.4 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.9 13.0 0.2 56.7 52.7 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.4 17.5 0.3 57.9 54.7 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.6 11.1 0.2 59.6 53.9 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.2 16.6 0.2 55.9 52.3 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.7 17.1 0.2 56.2 53.7 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.6 17.0 0.2 56.3 52.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.1 14.5 15.1 0.1 55.3 51.4 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.8 15.9 0.2 56.3 52.8 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.3 13.9 0.6 63.4 59.4 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.2 16.7 0.4 60.6 54.9 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.2 15.8 0.4 59.4 55.8 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.2 12.3 0.2 57.8 53.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.0 17.8 0.4 60.3 55.7 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------