***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.6 16.1 -0.4 44.7 44.5 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.4 16.3 -0.2 52.4 48.3 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.4 15.9 -0.5 43.9 43.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.8 14.0 -0.2 49.3 47.0 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.8 13.7 -0.3 46.4 45.7 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.9 11.7 -0.3 49.3 45.9 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.5 16.4 -0.1 54.8 50.2 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.5 11.8 -0.2 49.6 47.9 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.9 13.9 -0.5 42.8 43.9 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.6 12.4 -0.4 45.1 45.1 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.4 13.3 -0.2 49.3 48.0 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.6 12.8 -0.1 49.7 49.5 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.3 12.2 -0.2 46.0 46.0 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.4 14.0 -0.4 44.8 43.7 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.2 14.9 -0.1 56.0 50.5 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 13.0 -0.1 51.3 48.9 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.7 15.9 -0.2 48.8 47.2 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.6 11.8 -0.3 45.7 45.7 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.1 14.1 16.1 -0.4 46.6 45.9 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.1 9.9 -0.2 46.5 46.5 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.8 15.1 -0.5 42.9 42.5 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.5 15.7 -0.4 42.4 44.0 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.4 15.6 -0.5 41.1 43.3 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.6 13.8 -0.4 44.6 44.3 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.0 14.5 -0.4 43.6 43.7 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 11.6 12.9 12.5 0.0 52.2 51.5 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.9 15.3 -0.3 47.9 45.9 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.0 14.5 0.0 56.0 51.1 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.7 11.2 -0.2 48.6 47.1 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.7 16.4 -0.3 51.5 47.6 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------